Saturday, December 26, 2020

Muse on pandemic: Should you be concerned or worried about the new Corona-variant?

When it comes to the pandemic here I trust Dr. Anthony Fauci, in Germany I trust Dr. Christian Drosten, He is German answer to our Dr. Fauci, much younger, though. He is 48 years of age, Dr. Fauci just turned 80.  Both Dr. Fauci and Dr. Drosten received death threats (even Dr. Fauci’s 3 daughters were not spared) by corona-deniers.

Dr. Anthony Fauci and President Trump

Dr. Drosten is a virologist from Charity, Berlin, which is touted as the best research hospital in Europe.  More than half of all German Nobel Prize laureates in Medicine have worked at Charite.


Dr. Christian Drosten
Their views on the new corona-variant are very similar: Dr. Fauci said, “I would not be surprised if it is already here.” Dr. Drosten said, “I think it is already in Germany.   It is in Europe, even in Australia, why shouldn’t it be in Germany?” Dr. Drosten said.


The CDC said that the new strain is more rapidly transmissible (the reported 70% more transmissible is just an estimate), but there is no evidence that it is more serious or deadly (i,e. more virulent).  Scientists are working hard to better understand how easily the new variant might be transmitted and whether the currently approved vaccines will provide the same protection against the new strain.


Dr. Moncef Slaoui

According to Dr. Moncef Slaoui, head of the Operation Warp Speed, that antibodies produced in response to COVID-19 vaccines would continue to be effective as they bind to several “epitopes” (or regions) of the spike protein, which is a three-dimensional surface molecule that virus uses to invade human cell.  The chance that a single mutation would alter all the regions at once are “extremely low” or highly unlikely.


Dr. Drosten holds the same view, by saying the change of the virus is not extensive enough/sufficient and the vaccines are too broad in effect.  In fact, the vaccine was designed in anticipating that the virus may mutate somehow and somewhere along the way.


Der Tagesspiegel (a German newspaper) had an article 12/21/2020, after interviewing Dr. Christian Drosten on this topic.  The following is the English translation.


Drosten on Corona-mutation: “I think it is already in Germany”

Virologist Christian Drosten is not too worried about the Corona-mutation. Charite virologist Drosten warns the panic mongering (inciting panic) in connection to the new virus variant from Great Britain. As yet there is hardly any definite findings.

In an interview with the Deutschlandfunk Monday morning (Dec. 21) the Charite virologist warns the panic mongering (panic inciting) in connection to the emerging new virus variant.

Much of what is said and written about the new virus variant is still not scientifically confirmed, he said. British researchers have announced that the relevant information for the coming days.

Current statements such as the number that the mutation is 70% more contagious, were not based on solid findings, but are estimates. They find their way into media via politics. It will now simply take a few days until “clear messages” from the researchers received.

“At present I am not so very worried,” Drosten further added, “there can be scientific surprise, but I am anything but worry.” At the same time the current action of restricting travel traffic from Great Britain is “cautious” and appropriate. If there is more information then politics can react accordingly.

Looking at the Southern England where the new virus variant is currently mainly spreading, Drosten asked, “Does the virus wash up a new wave or is the virus responsible for the wave?” [I think he said the new wave could be the result of human behavior?] This is an important question that cannot be answered easily.

He referred to other countries where the new virus variant has been proven, and yet no direct and strong increase of cases in the same time, Drosten emphasized. He doesn't want to play down the new virus variant, especially the fact that the binding to human cell would become stronger, he called interesting. However, Drosten said, this circumstance could even weaken the virus. “That is not necessary good for the virus.”

According to Drosten the new virus has long since overcome many limits. “I think it is already in Germany” he said. The new virus has already been in England for several months and has found their way to various European countries.

“We know it is in Europe, even in Australia, why shouldn't it be in Germany?” Drosten doesn't believe the mutation has an effect on the effectiveness of the vaccine. The change of the virus is not extensive enough/sufficient and the vaccines are too broad in effect.

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Three Russia-born female performers that happen to be immigrants with distinguished achievements

(朋友送來 Andrea Bocelli and Helene Fischer 合唱的 The Prayer, https://youtu.be/mI0x97D8N8g  response 時發現談到的三個女藝人都是來自蘇俄的移民所以決定放在部落格上.

Andrea Bocelli 也應該算是 Opera singer, 可惜因為視力的關係他很少在 opera 出現,但也演了不少 operas (每一opera, 演的次數不多): La Boheme, Madama Butterfly, Tosca, Carmen, Romeo and Juliet and Macbeth (這些 operas 我們最近都看過我們 1974 or 1975 曾在紐約 Lincoln Center  City Opera 看過 Carmen. Andrea Bocelli plays Don Jose in Carmen, 算是男主角。Elina Garanca (Russian born, studied in Vienna and US) 演我們最近看的 Carmen, 非常好,we are very impressed. 把我了解的 Carmen 的性格演得非常傳神。


 Andrea Bocelli 一起唱的是德國歌星 Helene Fischer, 唱得非常不錯她是當今德國最紅的歌星,不下於咱們的 Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, 2018 年的收入 $32 million. 2018 年在柏林的 Olympiastadion 演出非常轟動。這個 Olympia Satdium 就是 1936 Hitler showcased 德國的 宣傳地點。2018 年初她因生病(”infection”) 而取消七場表演這期間全國觀望等不及她趕快復原開始表演。德國報紙 Der Tagesspiegel 這期間有一篇文章說 “No ‘breathless’ for Berlin, when the concerts will be made up is still not clear” [Kein ‘Atemlos‘ für Berlin] ‘Atemlos’ is ‘Breathless’  Helene Fischer 的暢銷曲所以說 “No breathless for Berlin” 表示柏林還是要繼續等她。



Helene Fischer 
是蘇俄出生(西伯利亞的 Krasnoyarsk) 小時候去德國的移民,所以有很多人要求她利用她的背景及聲望在 social media speaks out against right wing radicalism and xenophobia and she did, at least on her Facebook page that I know of.  


三個多月來看了很多 Anna Netrebko 的歌劇好像「認識」她了:她是 Don Pasquale 裡的 Norina, Anna Bolena 裡的 Anne Boleyn (Henry VIII 的第二任妻子幾年前參觀 London Tower 時我在她上斷頭台的地方哀思一番)最近看 Macbeth, 她是 Lady Macbeth. Anna Netrebko 也是蘇俄出生去 Vienna, Austria 的移民幾個月前她回蘇俄表演得了 Civid-19 (從跟她一起唱歌的男歌星得到的中獎沒症狀, aerosol 更容易從口裡流出。本來 Metropolitan Opera 十月份有她的一個 special concert (ticket price $20) 臨時取消。



 email 提到的三個 female performers (pop star or opera singers) 都是蘇俄出生到其他國家的移民, is it coincidence?


Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Not knowing Chinese Trump lost White House (Trump 不懂中文, 失去了江山)and America First

Trump 不懂中文使他失去了江山。如果沒有 pandemic, 他連任的機會應該很大, 何況 Biden 也不是一個 very strong candidate, all things considered.  Pandemic is a crisis (疫情一來是危機)Trump 不了解危機就是危險帶來的機會 (opportunity). 沒有人會怪他疫情的到來, 只要他處理適當, 加上美國的 resources and scientific know-how.  一定可以領導全球做全世界的榜樣, truly make America great again. 九個月來, 確診及死亡人數, 全球美國第一, America First, indeed!

(下面的 graph 來自德國報紙 Frankfurter Allgemeine data 來自 Johns Hopkins University


八個國家的確診數目的比較 (即每 100,000 人囗有多少確診。最近一兩個月歐洲疫情也很厲害但是還是大大趕不上美國.


最上面的是美國:幾乎 4,500 (America first, indeed)

第二名(西班牙)及第三名(法國):約 3,400


Trump 最喜歡跟德國比說美國跟德國一樣好他説謊是不會臉紅的.

德國:1,155-1,160


瑞典對疫情處理惡名昭張其數目也只約 2,810.

南韓數目非常低可能 100 以下(not shown on graph







Saturday, December 5, 2020

When daily confirmed coronavius cases are 1,313 on September 27, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the  daily cases may reach 19,200 by Christmas unless strict measures taken, some called her alarmist.  It turns out she was indeed wrong in her dire prediction: The daily cases reached 19,382 on Oct. 30, 31,480 on Nov. 4 and 32,687 on Nov. 25.

The following two graphs show the German ICU bed capacity was rapidly dwindling in November and was overwhelmed by December 4.

German ICU bed capacity [green line] as of 11/21/2020


German ICU bed capacity as of 12/4/2020

Germany 12/4/2020




The following graph shows the comparison of the confirmed cases per 100,000 population of each country: On the very top of the list is United States nearly 4,500 ("America First" indeed!), by comparison Germany s about 1155-1160.  The runner-ups are Spain and France (around 3,400). South Korea's number is extremely low, probably less than 100 (not shown on the graph). Italy is known to have its healthcare capacity overwhelmed and overrun, Sweden has notorious reputation when it comes to the management of andemic, their numbers are around 2,810.




Germany reproducton number 12/4/2020